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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • June 19, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR June 19, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.53 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.39-83.53 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.43, loss of 11 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.54.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.48 on 18/06. June USD/INR closed at 83.44, loss of 12 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.56. June Euro/INR closed at 89.48, GBP/INR at 105.88 and Yen/INR at 53.06. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.60% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 655 bn, as on June 7 th. Reserves climbed by USD 3 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (18/06)

USDINR

83.48

EURINR

89.53

GBPINR

105.96

JPYINR

52.88

In May till date, FPI’S have sold Rs 5240 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 6364 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 92 points (0.39%) Y’day. US S&P climbed 13 points (0.25%). Nikkei climbed 0.93% and Hang Seng declined 0.11% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0740, Pound at 1.2711, Yen at 157.79.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2330 and WT1Crude at USD 80.50/Brent at USD 85.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.22% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.03%.

Economic news: US retail sales was softer than expected and EU CPI was in line with expectation. Fed member said that inflation trend is declining and if sustained, it could lead to gradual rate cuts. ECB member said that economic projections will play an important role in rate decisions.

Data highlights: US retail sales climbed 0.1% m/m and industrial production climbed 0.9% m/m.

-EU CPI climbed 2.9% y/y and EU Zew survey climbed to 51.3 and German Zew declined to 47.5.

Wednesday’s calendar : – UK CPI, RPI and PPI(output)

USD/INR

 

  

 83.53

83.39

EUR/USD

1.0740

  

1.0762

1.0709

GBP/USD

1.2711

  

1.2722

1.2668

USD/JPY

157.79

  

158.24

157.51

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0736

1.0763

1.0789

1.0817

1.0710

1.0683

1.0656

GBP/USD

1.2699

1.2730

1.2753

1.2784

1.2676

1.2645

1.2622

USD/JPY

157.87

158.23

158.60

158.95

157.50

157.14

156.77

USD/INR

83.45

83.51

83.59

 

83.37

83.31

 

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0610

1.09

DN

UP>1.09

GBP/USD

1.2635/1.2575/1.2510

1.2825

UP

DN<1.2535

USD/JPY

154.50

157.80/160

UP

SIDE<154.50

USD/INR

83.30/83.23/83.05

83.60/83.70

UP

SIDE<83.30

USD/CHF

0.8885

0.9150/0.9295

UP

SIDE<0.90

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.41. 50 day moving average is at 83.41. 200 day moving average is at 83.18. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.30/83.23/83.05 and important resistance is at 83.60/83.70. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:

PP: 83.46, S1:83.37, S2:83.32, R1:83.52, R2:83.60.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.55+.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.09. Next major support is at 1.0620. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.09. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2825 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2535. Important resistance is at 1.2825.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 157.75. Important resistance is at 157.80/ 160 and support is at 154.50.

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