FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR June 26, 2024
USDINR opened at 83.49 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.41-83.47 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.42, loss of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.47.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.43 on 25/06. June USD/INR closed at 83.43, loss of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.49. June Euro/INR closed at 89.45, GBP/INR at 105.92 and Yen/INR at 52.39. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.60% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 653 bn, as on June 14 th. Reserves declined by USD 3 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (25/06) |
|
USDINR |
83.43 |
|
EURINR |
89.57 |
|
GBPINR |
105.86 |
|
JPYINR |
52.33 |
In May till date, FPI’S have bought Rs 9992 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 11236 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 183 points (0.78%) y’day. US S&P climbed 21 points (0.39%). Nikkei is up 1.56% and Hang Seng is up 0.09% today.
Euro is now at 1.0711, Pound at 1.2687, Yen at 159.84.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2320 and WT1Crude at USD 81/Brent at USD 84.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.26% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.98%.
Economic news: Fed member said her baseline outlook that US inflation will return to the 2% target, provided federal funds rate remains at its current level of 5.25-5.50% “for some time.” She emphasized that Fed is “still not yet at the point” where it would be appropriate to lower the policy rate.
Focus is on US Personal spending and Core PCE data.
Data highlights: -US House price index climbed 7.2% y/y and consumer confidence climbed to 100.4.
German Ifo survey dipped to 88.6.
Wednesday’s calendar : – US New home sales
|
USD/INR |
|
83.47 |
83.41 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0711 |
1.0745 |
1.0690 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2687 |
1.2704 |
1.2669 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
159.84 |
159.80 |
159.19 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0716 |
1.0742 |
1.0770 |
1.0796 |
1.0687 |
1.0662 |
1.0633 |
|
USD/JPY |
159.56 |
159.93 |
160.17 |
160.54 |
159.32 |
158.95 |
158.70 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2685 |
1.2701 |
1.2720 |
1.2736 |
1.2666 |
1.2650 |
1.2631 |
|
USD/INR |
83.43 |
83.45 |
83.49 |
|
83.39 |
83.37 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0610 |
1.0765/1.09 |
DN |
UP>1.09 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2535/1.2510 |
1.2825 |
UP |
DN<1.2535 |
|
USD/JPY |
154.50 |
160 |
UP |
SIDE<154.50 |
|
USD/INR |
83.42/83.34 |
83.70 |
UP |
SIDE<83.30 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8730 |
0.90 |
DN |
UP>0.90 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.43. 50 day moving average is at 83.42. 200 day moving average is at 83.19. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.42/83.34 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed below the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 83.45, S1:83.40, S2:83.36, R1:83.48, R2:83.54.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.60+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.09. Next major support is at 1.0610. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.09. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2825 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2535. Important resistance is at 1.2825.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 154.55. Important resistance is at 160 and support is at 154.55.
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