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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • June 27, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR June 27, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.45 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.42-83.61 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.58, gain of 16 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.42.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.54 on 26/06. June USD/INR closed at 83.66, gain of 23 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.43. June Euro/INR closed at 89.35, GBP/INR at 105.86 and Yen/INR at 52.42. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.60% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 653 bn, as on June 14 th. Reserves declined by USD 3 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (26/06)

USDINR

83.54

EURINR

89.41

GBPINR

105.96

JPYINR

52.27

In May till date, FPI’S have bought Rs 9992 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 11236 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 147 points (0.62%) y’day. US S&P climbed 9 points (0.16%). Nikkei climbed 1.26% and Hang Seng climbed 0.08% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0692, Pound at 1.2630, Yen at 160.48.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2300 and WT1Crude at USD 80.50/Brent at USD 84.10.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.34% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.99%.

Economic news: ECB Governing Council member noted that the current macroeconomic conditions support “normalization of the monetary stance.” He added that ECB initiated this process recently and, under the “baseline scenario,” intends to continue it “gradually and smoothly.” ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn indicated that market data suggests the likelihood of two additional rate cuts, bringing the rate to 3.25% by the end of the year. He also noted that the terminal rate for this easing cycle is expected to fall between 2.25% and 2.50%. 

Focus is on US Personal spending and Core PCE data.

Data highlights: – US New home sales dipped to 619k.

Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims, durables order and pending home sales

USD/INR

 

  

 83.61

83.42

EUR/USD

1.0692

  

1.0718

1.0666

GBP/USD

1.2630

  

1.2695

1.2614

USD/JPY

160.48

  

160.88

159.60

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0688

1.0710

1.0741

1.0763

1.0658

1.0635

1.0605

USD/JPY

160.42

161.24

161.70

162.51

159.96

159.14

158.68

GBP/USD

1.2643

1.2672

1.2724

1.2753

1.2591

1.2562

1.2510

USD/INR

83.54

83.65

83.73

 

83.46

83.35

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0610

1.0765/1.09

DN

UP>1.09

GBP/USD

1.2535/1.2510

1.2825

UP

DN<1.2535

USD/JPY

154.50

160

UP

SIDE<154.50

USD/INR

83.42/83.34

83.70

UP

SIDE<83.30

USD/CHF

0.8730

0.90

DN

UP>0.90

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.43. 50 day moving average is at 83.42. 200 day moving average is at 83.19. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.42/83.34 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:

PP: 83.62, S1:83.54, S2:83.43, R1:83.74, R2:83.81.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.60+.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.09. Next major support is at 1.0610. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.09. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2825 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2535. Important resistance is at 1.2825.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 154.55. Important resistance is at 160 and support is at 154.55.

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