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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • June 6, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR June 6, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.46 Y’day and the pair traded in the 83.30-83.46 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.44, gain of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.43.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.39 on 05/06. June USD/INR closed at 83.44, gain of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.51. June Euro/INR closed at 90.58, GBP/INR at 106.34 and Yen/INR at 53.32. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.67% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 646.6 bn, as on May 24 th. Reserves declined by USD 3.26 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (05/06)

USDINR

83.39

EURINR

90.67

GBPINR

106.45

JPYINR

53.53

In May till date, FPI’S have sold Rs 5433 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 2848 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 735 points (3.36%) Y’day. US S&P climbed 62 points (1.18%). Nikkei climbed 1.32% and Hang Seng climbed 0.95% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0890, Pound at 1.2805, Yen at 155.62.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2367 and WT1Crude at USD 74.50/Brent at USD 79.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.28% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.02%.

Economic news: Indian markets recovered and Rupee gained to 83.30 after post election result jolt.

US markets rallied as yields declined on rate cut optimism, following subdued economic data from US.

ECB is meeting today and is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps. EU PMI Composite was finalized at 52.2, up from prior month’s 51.7, a 12-month high.

UK composite PMI, which aggregates both services and manufacturing, also experienced a downturn, finishing at 53.0 compared to 54.1 the previous month.

Data highlights: – US ISM(mfrg) declined to 48.7 and construction spending declined -0.1% m/m. Factory orders climbed 0.7% m/m.

-US ADP employment report showed that private sector added 152 k jobs, much less than expected.

-EU PMI(mfrg) dipped to 47.3. PPI declined -1% m/m.

-EU PMI(services) was reported at 53.2.

-UK PMI(mfrg) was reported at 51.2.

Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims

USD/INR

 

  

83.46

83.30

EUR/USD

1.0890

  

1.0892

1.0854

GBP/USD

1.2805

  

1.2795

1.2755

USD/JPY

155.62

  

156.48

155.09

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0871

1.0888

1.0910

1.0927

1.0850

1.0832

1.0811

GBP/USD

1.2778

1.2802

1.2820

1.2844

1.2760

1.2736

1.2717

USD/JPY

155.79

156.79

157.50

158.50

155.09

154.08

153.38

USD/INR

83.40

83.50

83.56

 

83.34

83.24

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0775/1.0735

1.0885

UP

DN<1.0735

GBP/USD

1.2635/1.2575/1.2535

1.2825

UP

DN<1.2535

USD/JPY

153.75/152

157.80/160

UP

SIDE<152

USD/INR

82.95/82.85

83.52/83.70

SIDE

UP>83.55

USD/CHF

0.8885

0.9150/0.9295

UP

SIDE<0.90

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.40. 50 day moving average is at 83.35. 200 day moving average is at 83.13. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.05/82.95 and important resistance is at 83.52/83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:

PP: 83.43, S1:83.35, S2:83.25, R1:83.52, R2:83.61.

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.52.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0885. Next major support is at 1.0775/1.0735. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0885. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2535. Important resistance is at 1.2825.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 152. Important resistance is at 157.80/ 160 and support is at 151.85/149.

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