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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • March 21, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR March 21, 2024

USDINR opened at 83 y’day and the pair traded in the 83-83.22 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.18, gain of 16 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.02.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.10 on 20/03. Mar USD/INR closed at 83.18, gain of 15 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.03. Mar Euro/INR closed at 90.18, GBP/INR at 105.56 and Yen/INR at 54.95. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.61% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 636 bn, as on March 8 th. Reserves climbed USD 11 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (19/03)

USDINR

83.10

EURINR

90.30

GBPINR

105.69

JPYINR

54.83

In March, FPI’S bought Rs 38538 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 10599 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 21 points (0.10%) y’day. US S&P climbed 46 points (0.89%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.66% and Hang Seng climbed 0.08% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0938, Pound at 1.2801, Yen at 150.31.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2203 and WT1Crude at USD 81/Brent at USD 86.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.26% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.08%.

Economic news:  Rupee declined to 83.20, as USD gained against majors. Fiscal year end payments, and falling Equities also weighed down on Rupee. In last few weeks, RBI seems to have intervened to stem Rupee gains.

Federal Reserve kept rates steady and stuck to its forecasts of at least three rate cuts this year. Fed Chairman flagged continued resilience in the U.S. economy- a trend that bodes well for corporate earnings. However, he stuck caution on inflation.

USD declined and stocks rose, cheered by prospects of June rate cut and still a robust economy and labor market.

Focus is now on PMI data.

Data highlights: – EU Consumer confidence was reported at -15.

-UK CPI climbed 3.4% y/y, PPI(output) climbed 0.3% m/m and RPI climbed 4.5% y/y.

Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims, existing home sales

-US PMI(mfrg) and PMI(services)

-EU PMI(mfrg-flash) and (services-flash)

-UK MPC meeting.

USD/INR

 

  

 83.22

83

EUR/USD

1.0938

  

1.0938

1.0836

GBP/USD

1.2801

  

1.2799

1.2684

USD/JPY

150.31

  

151.87

150.69

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0904

1.0972

1.1006

1.1074

1.0870

1.0802

1.0768

GBP/USD

1.2760

1.2836

1.2875

1.2952

1.2721

1.2645

1.2606

USD/JPY

151.10

151.51

152.28

152.69

150.33

149.92

149.16

USD/INR

83.13

83.26

83.35

 

83.04

82.91

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0830

1.0990/1.1040

UP

DN<1.0830

GBP/USD

1.26

1.29/1.2975

UP

DN<1.26

USD/JPY

146/144.35

149.20/151

SIDE

DN<146.20

USD/INR

83.12/82.96

83.26

UP

DN<82.92

USD/CHF

0.8725

0.89

UP

DN<0.8675

Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.88. 50 day moving average is at 82.99. 200 day moving average is at 82.89. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.92/82.81/82.65 and important resistance is at 83.12. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for March contract are:

PP: 83.12, S1:83.06, S2:82.92, R1:83.24, R2:83.30.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 82.95. Imports be hedged at 82.65 for 1 month.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0995/1.1040. Next major support is at 1.0830. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important support at 1.07. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2517 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2517. Important support is at 1.26/1.2515. Important resistance is at 1.29/1.2995.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 20 day, but still above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 150.90. Important resistance is at 149.20/150.90 and support is at 146/144.35.

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