FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR May 13, 2024
USDINR opened at 83.48 on Friday and the pair traded in the 83.46-83.52 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.52, gain of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.51.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.50 on 10/05. May USD/INR closed at 83.54, loss of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.57. May Euro/INR closed at 89.99, GBP/INR at 104.43 and Yen/INR at 53.80. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.69% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 641.50 bn, as on May 3 rd. Reserves increased by USD 3.6 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (10/05) |
|
USDINR |
83.50 |
|
EURINR |
90.01 |
|
GBPINR |
104.69 |
|
JPYINR |
53.66 |
In May till date, FPI’S have sold Rs 18933 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 1333 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 98 points (0.44%) on Friday. US S&P climbed 8 points (0.16%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 0.49% and Hang Seng climbed 2.3% on Friday.
Euro is now at 1.0772, Pound at 1.2525, Yen at 155.78.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2360 and WT1Crude at USD 78/Brent at USD 83.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.50% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.13%.
Economic news: Global sentiments were boosted by rate cut hopes and major central banks moved closer to rate cut. Economic data was also very robust. Fed indicated that there is no chance of rate hike and decision will be on cuts or no cuts immediately. However, Univ of Michigan survey on inflation expectations showed that inflation expectation has inched higher from 3.2% to 3.5% in May.
According to the minutes from ECB’s April meeting, while a “very large majority” preferred to hold rates steady for another session, a few members were “sufficiently confident” to support a rate cut at that time. The meeting accounts suggested that it is “plausible that the Governing Council would be in a position to start easing monetary policy restriction at the June meeting.”
UK has emerged out of recession with GDP climbing 0.4% m/m, best ever data since 2021. BOE meeting details signaled dovishness with some members voting for rate cut.
US CPI and retail sales data will be keenly watched.
Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 231k.
-UK industrial production climbed 0.2% and manufacturing climbed 0.3% m/m.
-UK GDP climbed 0.4% m/m.
Monday’s calendar : No major data release.
|
USD/INR |
|
83.52 |
83.46 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0772 |
1.0790 |
1.0760 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2525 |
1.2542 |
1.2502 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
155.78 |
155.91 |
155.37 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0774 |
1.0788 |
1.0804 |
|
1.0754 |
1.0744 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2523 |
1.2544 |
1.2563 |
|
1.2504 |
1.2483 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
155.68 |
156 |
156.22 |
|
155.45 |
155.14 |
|
|
USD/INR |
83.50 |
83.54 |
83.56 |
|
83.48 |
83.44 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.07/1.06 |
1.08/1.0840 |
DN |
UP>1.0845 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.23/1.2220 |
1.2570/1.2640 |
DN |
UP>1.2640 |
|
USD/JPY |
152 |
160 |
UP |
SIDE<152 |
|
USD/INR |
83.35/83.17/83.10 |
83.70 |
UP |
SIDE<83.35 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.90/0.8885 |
0.9230 |
UP |
SIDE<0.90 |
Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.43. 50 day moving average is at 83.19. 200 day moving average is at 83.06. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.35/83.17/83.10 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 83.54, S1:83.52, S2:83.49, R1:83.56, R2:83.59.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.17/83.10.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.08/1.0845. Next major support is at 1.07/1.06. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.06. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.23/1.2230. Important resistance is at 1.2630.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 160. Important resistance is at 160 and support is at 151.85/149.
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