FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR May 15, 2024
USDINR opened at 83.51 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.49-83.52 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.51, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 83.52.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.52 on 14/05. May USD/INR closed at 83.56, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.54. May Euro/INR closed at 90.12, GBP/INR at 104.78 and Yen/INR at 53.44. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.69% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 641.50 bn, as on May 3 rd. Reserves increased by USD 3.6 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (14/05) |
|
USDINR |
83.52 |
|
EURINR |
90.08 |
|
GBPINR |
104.87 |
|
JPYINR |
53.37 |
In May till date, FPI’S have sold Rs 18933 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 1333 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 114 points (0.51%) y’day. US S&P climbed 25 points (0.48%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.39% and Hang Seng declined 0.22% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0823, Pound at 1.2591, Yen at 156.46.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2357 and WT1Crude at USD 78.60/Brent at USD 82.90.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.45% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.11%.
Economic news: Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at an event, characterized the recent US economic data as presenting a “good picture.” He noted that the labor market is showing signs of “gradual cooling” and moving toward “better balance.” However, he pointed out that disinflation in the first quarter was marked by a “lack of further progress.”
EU and German zew survey improved significantly. ZEW President said: ” Signs of an economic recovery are growing, bolstered by better assessments of the overall eurozone and of China as a key export market. The increased optimism is reflected in particular in the sharp rise in expectations for domestic consumption, followed by the construction and machinery sectors.”
US PPI and CPI are important data events for the week.
Data highlights: – US PPI climbed 0.5% m/m.
-EU and German Zew surveys improved to 47 and 47.1 respectively.
-UK unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% and claimant count change declined to 8.9k.
Wednesday’s calendar : -US CPI and retail sales
-EU GDP and industrial production
|
USD/INR |
|
83.52 |
83.49 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0823 |
1.0826 |
1.0768 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2591 |
1.2594 |
1.2508 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
156.46 |
156.76 |
156.22 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0803 |
1.0838 |
1.0861 |
1.0897 |
1.0780 |
1.0745 |
1.0722 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2563 |
1.2618 |
1.2649 |
1.2704 |
1.2532 |
1.2477 |
1.2446 |
|
USD/JPY |
156.50 |
156.78 |
157.04 |
157.32 |
156.24 |
155.96 |
155.70 |
|
USD/INR |
83.50 |
83.52 |
83.53 |
|
83.48 |
83.47 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.07/1.06 |
1.0840 |
DN |
UP>1.0845 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.23/1.2220 |
1.2570/1.2640 |
DN |
UP>1.2640 |
|
USD/JPY |
152 |
160 |
UP |
SIDE<152 |
|
USD/INR |
83.35/83.17/83.10 |
83.70 |
UP |
SIDE<83.35 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.90/0.8885 |
0.9230 |
UP |
SIDE<0.90 |
Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.45. 50 day moving average is at 83.23. 200 day moving average is at 83.06. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.35/83.17/83.10 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed below the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 83.55, S1:83.54, S2:83.53, R1:83.56, R2:83.57.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.17/83.10.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.08/1.0845. Next major support is at 1.07/1.06. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.06. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.23/1.2230. Important resistance is at 1.2630.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 160. Important resistance is at 160 and support is at 151.85/149.
Click to open an Account : https://ekyc.gwcindia.in/client/