FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR May 17, 2024
USDINR opened at 83.45 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.44-83.51 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.51, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 83.51.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.50 on 16/05. May USD/INR closed at 83.52, loss of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.55. May Euro/INR closed at 90.78, GBP/INR at 105.78 and Yen/INR at 54.35. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.69% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 641.50 bn, as on May 3 rd. Reserves increased by USD 3.6 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (16/05) |
|
USDINR |
83.50 |
|
EURINR |
90.83 |
|
GBPINR |
105.86 |
|
JPYINR |
54.15 |
In May till date, FPI’S have sold Rs 18933 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 1333 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 203 points (0.92%) y’day. US S&P declined 11 points (0.20%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 1.41% and Hang Seng climbed 1.59% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0860, Pound at 1.2656, Yen at 155.82.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2388 and WT1Crude at USD 79/Brent at USD 83.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.37% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.09%.
Economic news: ECB’s Financial Stability Review expressed concern that financial stability could be affected by the possibility of “adverse economic and financial surprises”. Geopolitical tensions such as in Ukraine and the Middle East had the potential to trigger large market reactions to negative news and the report warned that elections in the US and the European Union added more uncertainty.
New York Fed President expressed confidence in the current state of monetary policy, stating that it is “in a good place.” He highlighted the positive mix of economic data, noting strong consumer spending, business investment, and GDP growth. He emphasized that the economy is “not really at a near-term risk” and remains robust, supported by a strong labor market. He acknowledged that lower interest rates would be necessary as inflation approaches 2% target. He explained that once inflation is sustainably at this level, Fed would need to reduce its “restrictive influence” on the economy, and move to a “more neutral kind of position.”
ECB Governing Council member stated at a news conference today that Eurozone inflation rate’s fall towards the 2% target is “real,” and assured that the monetary policy interest rate will decrease.
Japan’s GDP contracted by -0.5% qoq in Q1, slightly worse than the expected -0.4% qoq decline. On annualized basis, GDP fell by -2.0%, missing forecast of -1.5% drop.
Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 222k.
-US building permits dipped to 1.44 mn and housing starts dipped to 1.36 mn.
-US industrial production was flat m/m.
Friday’s calendar : -EU CPI
|
USD/INR |
|
83.505 |
83.44 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0860 |
1.0896 |
1.0854 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2656 |
1.2701 |
1.2643 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
155.82 |
155.54 |
153.60 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0873 |
1.0892 |
1.0915 |
1.0934 |
1.0850 |
1.0831 |
1.0808 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2672 |
1.2701 |
1.2730 |
1.2759 |
1.2643 |
1.2614 |
1.2586 |
|
USD/JPY |
154.85 |
156.10 |
156.78 |
158.03 |
154.16 |
152.92 |
152.23 |
|
USD/INR |
83.48 |
83.525 |
83.55 |
|
83.455 |
83.41 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0735/1.06 |
1.0885 |
UP |
DN<1.0735 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.25 |
1.2710 |
UP |
DN<1.25 |
|
USD/JPY |
152 |
157/160 |
UP |
SIDE<152 |
|
USD/INR |
83.35/83.17/83.10 |
83.70 |
UP |
SIDE<83.35 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.90/0.8885 |
0.9230 |
UP |
SIDE<0.90 |
Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.44. 50 day moving average is at 83.25. 200 day moving average is at 83.06. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.35/83.17/83.10 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 83.51, S1:83.49, S2:83.45, R1:83.55, R2:83.57.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.25.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0885. Next major support is at 1.0735. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.06. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.25. Important resistance is at 1.2710.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 160. Important resistance is at 160 and support is at 151.85/149.
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