FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR May 27, 2024
USDINR opened at 83.23 on Friday and the pair traded in the 83.03-83.25 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.12, loss of 17 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.29.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.12 on 24/05. May USD/INR closed at 83.13, loss of 18 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.31. May Euro/INR closed at 90.11, GBP/INR at 105.69 and Yen/INR at 53.21. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.67% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 648.7 bn, as on May 17 th. Reserves increased by USD 4.55 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (24/05) |
|
USDINR |
83.12 |
|
EURINR |
89.89 |
|
GBPINR |
105.50 |
|
JPYINR |
52.92 |
In May till date, FPI’S have sold Rs 23897 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 2277 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty closed flat on Friday (0%). US S&P climbed 37 points (0.70%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 1.27% and Hang Seng declined 1.38% on Friday.
Euro is now at 1.0847, Pound at 1.2737, Yen at 157.01.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2334 and WT1Crude at USD 78/Brent at USD 82.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.47% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7%.
Economic news: Rupee continued its winning streak, buoyed by FPI inflows and positive sentiments generated on RBI’S big dividend payout.
Last week developments centered around expectations on likely evolution of monetary policy across US and EU,UK. Strong economic data and Fed’s hawkish minutes has tempered Sept rate cut expectations. With UK election in July, BOE may defer monetary policy statements till new Govt is formed.
The minutes from the latest FOMC meeting indicated that there is an openness among various participants to tighten monetary policy further if inflation risks escalate to a degree that necessitates such action.
British Pound emerged as the most significant gainer, buoyed by fading expectations of an immediate BoE rate cut in June. This shift was precipitated by latest inflation data and compounded by the UK government’s unexpected decision to hold an election in July.
Data highlights: – – US durables order climbed 0.7% m/m.
-UK retail sales declined -2.3% m/m.
Monday’s calendar : – No major data release.
|
USD/INR |
|
83.25 |
83.03 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0847 |
1.0859 |
1.0805 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2737 |
1.2752 |
1.2678 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
157.01 |
157.16 |
156.82 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0837 |
1.0869 |
1.0891 |
|
1.0815 |
1.0783 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2722 |
1.2767 |
1.2796 |
|
1.2692 |
1.2648 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
157 |
157.18 |
157.34 |
|
156.84 |
156.66 |
|
|
USD/INR |
83.13 |
83.24 |
83.36 |
|
83.01 |
82.90 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0775/1.0735 |
1.0885 |
UP |
DN<1.0735 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2635/1.2575/1.2535 |
1.2825 |
UP |
DN<1.2535 |
|
USD/JPY |
153.75/152 |
157.60/160 |
UP |
SIDE<152 |
|
USD/INR |
82.95/82.85 |
83.28/83.42/83.52 |
SIDE |
UP>83.55 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.90/0.8885 |
0.9295 |
UP |
SIDE<0.90 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 50 and 20 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.42. 50 day moving average is at 83.28. 200 day moving average is at 83.12. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.95 and important resistance is at 83.28/83.42. Spot closed below the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 83.14, S1:83.03, S2:82.93, R1:83.24, R2:83.35.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD imports be hedged.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0885. Next major support is at 1.0775/1.0735. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.06. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2535. Important resistance is at 1.2825.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 152. Important resistance is at 157.60/ 160 and support is at 151.85/149.
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