FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR October 27, 2023
USDINR opened at 83.18 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.18-83.26 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.25, gain of 9 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.16.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.24 on 26/10. Oct USD/INR closed at 83.26, gain of 9 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.17. Oct Euro/INR closed at 87.75, GBP/INR at 100.62 and Yen/INR at 55.40. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.72% p.a. FX reserves declined by USD 3 bn and stood at USD 585 bn as on Oct 13 th.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (26/10) |
|
USDINR |
83.24 |
|
EURINR |
87.70 |
|
GBPINR |
100.51 |
|
JPYINR |
55.22 |
In Oct, FPI’S have sold Rs 7476 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 5571 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 264 points (1.39%) Y’day. US S&P declined 49 points (1.18%) . Nikkei declined 2.22% and Hang Seng declined 0.23%.
Euro is now at 1.0560, Pound at 1.2132, Yen at 150.25.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1986 and WT1Crude at USD 84/Brent at USD 88.75.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.86% and 3 m libor closed at 5.65%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.36%.
Economic news: Indian Equities continued to slump on slower than expected Q/Q Corporate results. Surging US Yields and Middle east tensions also weighed on markets. U.S. GDP remained exceptionally strong, accelerating to an annualized rate of 4.9%. That was also the fifth consecutive increase since Q2/22 and largest since Q4/21. GDP number indicates the U.S. economy still performed remarkably well in Q3, led by resilient household spending. Consumer spending is attributed to excess savings created during pandemic.
ECB kept interest rates unchanged as widely expected. The main refinancing, marginal lending and deposit rates are held at 4.50%, 4.75%, and 4.00% respectively.
The central bank maintains that key interest are “at levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to this goal.” Future decisions will ensure the policy rates are set at sufficiently restrictive levels for “as long as necessary”. Nevertheless, ECB still “stands ready” to adjust all of its instruments.
Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims was reported at 210k, durables order climbed 4.7% m/m, GDP(advance) estimate showed growth of 4.9% q/q and pending home sales climbed 1.1% m/m.
Friday’s calendar : – US Personal income, spending and Core PCE index
|
USD/INR |
|
83.26 |
83.18 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0560 |
1.0570 |
1.0523 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2132 |
1.2140 |
1.2069 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
150.25 |
150.79 |
149.90 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0552 |
1.0581 |
1.0599 |
1.0628 |
1.0534 |
1.0505 |
1.0487 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2115 |
1.2161 |
1.2186 |
1.2232 |
1.2090 |
1.2044 |
1.2019 |
|
USD/JPY |
150.35 |
150.80 |
151.24 |
151.69 |
149.91 |
149.46 |
149.02 |
|
USD/INR |
83.23 |
83.28 |
83.31 |
|
83.20 |
83.15 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0450 |
1.0740/1.0815 |
DN |
SIDE>1.07 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2090/1.2035 |
1.2330/1.2440/1.25 |
SIDE |
DN<1.2090 |
|
USD/JPY |
147.50/146.50 |
150 |
UP |
SIDE<147.50 |
|
USD/INR |
83.03/82.80 |
83.35/83.47 |
UP |
SIDE<83.02 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.89 |
0.9050 |
UP |
SIDE<0.89 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.22. 50 day moving average is at 83.06.200 day moving average is at 82.45. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.03/82.80 and important resistance is at 83.35. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Oct contract are:
PP: 83.23, S1:83.19, S2:83.13, R1:83.29, R2:83.33.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.30/83.50. Imports be hedged at 83.10 for 3 months.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 100/200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0740/1.0815. Next major support is at 1.0595/1.0450. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0450. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1275.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145. Important support is at 1.2090/1.2035/1.18. Important resistance is at 1.2330/1.2440.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 150.20. Important resistance is at 150.20 and support is at 147.50/146.50.