FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS :
FX Rates and USD INR Forward Rate December 1, 2023
Major developments:
USD is now at 83.32. USDINR opened at 83.35. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd premia is at 1.53% p.a.
-Indian GDP surprised by climbing to 7.6%, driven by Govt investment and Capital formation.
-Mfrg climbed 13.9%, Construction 13.3%, agri 1.2% and services 5.8%.
-Govt consumption climbed 12.4% and Gross Capital formation grew 11%. Private consumption was tepid at 3.1%.
-FY 24 GDP is expected to be between 6.5% and 6.8%.
-Sequential growth was also robust.
-Rupee trades steady.
-US Core PCE climbed 3.5% y/y and 0.2% m/m.
-US spending and income grew by 0.2% m/m respectively.
USDINR outlook: RBI has been selling USD at higher levels, but accepting modest decline. USD INR pair closed the month at 83.38 as against 83.26 in Oct. FII’S have been net buyers in both Equity and debt segments in Nov. Rupee can gain modestly if FII inflows surface due to MSCI rebalancing. RBI could keep Rupee in the 83.25-83.45 range for some more weeks.
RBI rates
| Trade Date | 1 USD | 1 GBP | 1 EUR | 100 YEN |
| 30-Nov-23 | 83.35 | 105.86 | 91.48 | 56.68 |
-USDINR is at 83.32.Prior day’s close was 83.38.
-Indian Equity indices climb.
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.29%.
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 1.53%.
USDINR @ 83.32, EUR/USD@ 1.0911, GBP/USD @ 1.2643, USD/JPY @ 148.06, EUR/INR @ 90.92, GBP/INR @ 105.35, JPY/INR @ 56.28. Gold@2041, Brent Crude @ 80.75, Nifty @ 20273(+141), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.29%.
Hedging:
USDINR payables can be hedged on dips to 83.25 . Eur receivables can be hedged now .
GBPINR receivables can be hedged now.
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