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FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS :

FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS :
By Goodwill

FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS :

FX Rates and USD INR Forward Rate October 12, 2023

Major developments:

USD is now at 83.14. USDINR opened at 83.16. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd premia is at 1.79% p.a. 
 
-US FOMC minutes sounded cautionary on future rate hikes due to economic uncertainty and rising Crude prices.
 
-Indian CPI, IIP and US CPI are important data events for the day..
 
USDINR View: RBI’S intervention keeps Rupee away from significant decline. On the downside, USDINR may have strong support at 83/82.80. Rupee’s Monthly range (hi/lo) is the lowest in last 15 months. It shows how volatility is being controlled by RBI. Implied volatility is below 3% p.a. now. It used to average 5% and spike to 8% during Rupee weakness. Expect 83-83.70 range for USDINR in Oct.
 
RBI rates
 
Trade Date  1 USD 1 GBP 1 EUR 100 YEN
11-Oct-23 83.23 102.27 88.25 55.89
 
-USDINR is at 83.13.Prior day’s close was 83.19.
 
-Indian Equity indices decline marginally.
 
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.30%.
 
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 1.79%.
 
USDINR @ 83.13, EUR/USD@ 1.0629, GBP/USD @ 1.2318, USD/JPY @ 149.16, EUR/INR @ 88.36, GBP/INR @ 102.41, JPY/INR @ 55.73. Gold@1877, Brent Crude @ 85.50, Nifty @ 19786(-25), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.30%.
 
Hedging:
USDINR payables can be hedged at 83. Eur receivables can be hedged now and on rally 88.70.
GBPINR receivables can be hedged closer to 103.75.
 
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  • October 12, 2023

Risk Disclosures
on Derivatives

  • 9 out of 10 individual traders in equity Futures and Options Segment, incurred net losses.
  • On an average, loss makers registered net trading loss close to ₹ 50,000.
  • Over and above the net trading losses incurred, loss makers expended an additional 28% of net trading losses as transaction costs.
  • Those making net trading profits, incurred between 15% to 50% of such profits as transaction cost.
Source: SEBI study dated January 25, 2023 on “Analysis of Profit and Loss of Individual Traders dealing in equity Futures and Options (F&O) Segment”, wherein Aggregate Level findings are based on annual Profit/Loss incurred by individual traders in equity F&O during FY 2021-22.

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