FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS :
FX Rates and USD INR Forward Rate October 18, 2023
Major developments:
USD is now at 83.24. USDINR opened at 83.22. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd premia is at 1.70% p.a.
-Crude prices climbed further to USD 91.
-US retail sales was stronger than expected.
-US 10 Year Treasury yields climb to 4.85%.
-Indian 10 Year G-SEC Yield climbs to 7.36% as Oil prices climb.
USDINR View: RBI’S intervention keeps Rupee away from significant decline. On the downside, USDINR may have strong support at 83/82.80.
Rupee’s Monthly range (hi/lo) is the lowest in last 15 months. It shows how volatility is being controlled by RBI. Implied volatility is below 3% p.a. now. It used to average 5% and spike to 8% during Rupee weakness. Expect 83-83.70 range for USDINR in Oct.
RBI rates
| Trade Date | 1 USD | 1 GBP | 1 EUR | 100 YEN |
| 17-Oct-23 | 83.25 | 101.35 | 87.71 | 55.64 |
-USDINR is at 83.24.Prior day’s close was 83.23.
-Indian Equity indices decline.
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.36%.
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 1.70%.
USDINR @ 83.24, EUR/USD@ 1.0580, GBP/USD @ 1.2184, USD/JPY @ 149.69, EUR/INR @ 88.07, GBP/INR @ 101.42, JPY/INR @ 55.61. Gold@1939, Brent Crude @ 91.60, Nifty @ 19769(-42), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.36%.
Hedging:
USDINR payables can be hedged at 83.10. Eur receivables can be hedged now and on rally 88.70.
GBPINR receivables can be hedged closer to 103.75.
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