FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS :
FX Rates and USD INR Forward Rate October 19, 2023
Major developments:
USD is now at 83.27. USDINR opened at 83.25. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd premia is at 1.70% p.a.
-US 10 Year Treasury yields climb to 4.94%.
-FX market reaction to Middle east developments remains muted.
USDINR View: RBI’S intervention keeps Rupee away from significant decline. On the downside, USDINR may have strong support at 83/82.80.
Rupee’s Monthly range (hi/lo) is the lowest in last 15 months. It shows how volatility is being controlled by RBI. Implied volatility is below 3% p.a. now. It used to average 5% and spike to 8% during Rupee weakness. Expect 83-83.70 range for USDINR in Oct.
RBI rates
| Trade Date | 1 USD | 1 GBP | 1 EUR | 100 YEN |
| 18-Oct-23 | 83.25 | 101.63 | 88.17 | 55.64 |
-USDINR is at 83.27.Prior day’s close was 83.26.
-Indian Equity indices decline.
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.37%.
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 1.70%.
USDINR @ 83.27, EUR/USD@ 1.0533, GBP/USD @ 1.2125, USD/JPY @ 149.81, EUR/INR @ 87.70, GBP/INR @ 100.97, JPY/INR @ 55.57. Gold@1947, Brent Crude @ 91, Nifty @ 19570(-98), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.37%.
Hedging:
USDINR payables can be hedged at 83.10. Eur receivables can be hedged now and on rally 88.70.
GBPINR receivables can be hedged closer to 103.75.
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