FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS :
FX Rates and USD INR Forward Rate September 21, 2023
Major developments:
USD is now at 83.09. USDINR opened at 83.09. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd premia is at 1.74% p.a.
-Fed kept rates on hold, but indicated one more rate hike this year.
-Fed expects Core PCE to decline and growth to climb to 2.1% in 2023.
-USD Index climbed as Fed indicated that only two rate cuts is possible next year as against expectation of 4 rate cuts next year.
-US 2 Year yield climbed to 5.18%. Equity indices declined 1%.
-EURO is bearish with possible break of 1.0635 support levels.
-BOE rate decision will be known later today.
USDINR View: RBI’S intervention keeps Rupee away from a Significant decline.
Expect 83.30/83.60 as possible levels for USDINR this month. On the downside, it needs to break 82.80 to move back down to 82.55.
RBI rates
| Trade Date | 1 USD | 1 GBP | 1 EUR | 100 YEN |
| 20-Sep-23 | 83.25 | 102.84 | 88.99 | 56.28 |
-USDINR is at 83.09.Prior day’s close was 83.08.
-Indian Equity indices decline.
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.18%.
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 1.74%.
USDINR @ 83.07, EUR/USD@ 1.0636, GBP/USD @ 1.2320, USD/JPY @ 148.38, EUR/INR @ 88.35, GBP/INR @ 102.36, JPY/INR @ 55.99.
Gold@1927, Brent Crude @ 93., Nifty @ 19762(-138), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.18%.
Hedging:
USDINR payables can be hedged at 82.95. Eur receivables can be hedged on rally to 89/89.50.
GBPINR receivables can be hedged closer to 104.50/105.
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