FX – WEEKLY UPDATE :
FX Weekly Currency Score Week 39
WEEKLY SYNOPSIS: 22/09/2023
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|
Currency Pairs |
WEEK CLOSE |
PRIOR CLOSE |
% change |
|
USD/INR |
82.93 |
83.19 |
-0.25 |
|
EUR/INR |
88.34 |
88.56 |
-0.24 |
|
GBP/INR |
101.87 |
103.29 |
-1.37 |
|
JPY/INR |
55.99 |
56.28 |
-0.51 |
Brent Crude closed at USD 93.80 VS prior week close of USD 94.45. Gold closed at USD 1925. Nifty closed at 19674 vs prior week close of 20192. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 7.14%.
Major developments: USDINR traded in the 82.81-83.26 range last week and closed at 82.93, loss of 26 ps for USD as compared to prior week close of 83.19. EUR declined 0.24% w/w and GBP declined 1.37% w/w against Rupee. Indian benchmark Equity index declined 2.56% w/w. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 7.14%. 1-year fwd premia is at 1.76% p.a.
FX reserves stood at USD 593 bn as on Sept 15 th. In Sep, FPI’S have sold Rs 11422 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 125 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.
Indian bonds has been included by JP Morgan in its Emerging bond index which is capitalized at USD 236 bn. Indian bond weightage is likely to be 10%. This implies likely inflows of USD 24 bn. Flows may begin from June 2024 and is likely to be staggered over 10 months. Other institutions like FTSE may also include Indian bonds in its index. This is likely to be positive over a longer period of time.
Rupee gained on inclusion of Indian bonds in JP Morgan index. However, USD’s and Crude price rally will stem any Rupee gains.
Hedging advise: Imports be hedged on declined to 82.85. Exports be hedged gradually.
Global developments: US markets faced a turbulent last week after Fed’s hawkish hold at 5.25-5.00%. While Fed’s messages were clear that interest rates are going to stay “higher for longer”, overall developments argue that investors are much less convinced on the “higher” part than the “longer”. S&P 500 and NASDAQ experiencing notable drops of -2.9% and -3.6% respectively.
10-year Treasury yield reached its highest point since 2007, while 2-year rate recorded its apex since 2006. Despite the risk aversion sentiment and elevated yields, Dollar index only nudged up by a mere 0.002%. Dollar would probably need to be convinced about the “higher” part before having another substantial break on the upside.
US Fed kept rates on hold, but indicated one more rate hike by this Year end and expects higher rates to continue for longer time. Fed has hiked rates 11 times in this cycle. The effect of monetary tightening has brought Core PCE down to 4.3% from 4.7%. However, Fed has not declared victory on inflation. Rates could raise from 5.25%-5.5% zone to 5.5% to 5.75% by year end. Fed is expected to deliver two rates cuts next year to bring rate down to 5.1%. Fed expects Core PCE inflation to average 3.7% this year and decline to 2.6% in 2024. Unemployment rate is expected to average 3.8% this year and climb to 4.1% next year. GDP growth has been revised upwards to 2.1% from 1% for 2023 and to 1.5% for 2024 from 1%.
BOE left rates unchanged at 5.25%. The accompanying commentary noted the Bank of England’s worsening outlook for GDP growth and signs of deterioration in the labor market. In addition, the central bank expects inflation to slow significantly in the near term. The statement implies that BOE has done with rate tightening cycle.
Pound declined to 1.2250 levels and is below the key 200 day average.
OECD revised its 2023 Global growth rate to 3% and to 2.7% for 2024. OECD outlook points out considerable downside risks, emphasizing potential persistency in inflation accompanied by potential disruptions in the food and energy markets. Slowdown in China’s economy stands as a prominent concern, with ripple effects expected to diminish growth in global trading partners and possibly undercut business confidence universally.
Technically, EURUSD has turned bearish with downside break of 200 day average. Rally will be met with resistance at 1.0850/1.09. GBPUSD has also broken 200 day averages and has turned bearish.
Currency technical levels: USDINR: 82.80/82.65 (Supports), 83.30/83.47 (resistance),
EURINR:89/89.80(Resistance),
GBPINR: Supports: 99( supports), Resistance:103.85/105.50(
JPYINR: Resistance:57/59.50, Supports: 55.10 (support).
Hedging advise: USDINR imports be hedged at 82.80 on decline. EUR and GBP exports can be covered on rally to 89/89.50 and 105+ respectively.