FX – WEEKLY UPDATE :

FX Weekly Currency Score Week 40 of 2023

WEEKLY SYNOPSIS: 29/09/2023

Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!

Currency Map:

Currency Pairs	SEP CLOSE	AUG CLOSE	% change
USD/INR	83.08	82.77	0.37
EUR/INR	87.94	90.22	-2.52
GBP/INR	101.67	105.09	-3.25
JPY/INR	55.81	56.63	-1.44

Brent Crude closed at USD 92 VS prior week close of USD 84. Gold closed at USD 1848. Nifty closed at 19638 vs prior month close of 19253. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 7.21%.

Major developments: USDINR traded in the 82.60-83.33 range in Sep and closed at 83.08, gain of 31 ps for USD as compared to Aug close of 82.77. EUR declined 2.52% m/m and GBP declined 3.25% m/m against Rupee. Indian benchmark Equity index climbed 2% m/m. 10 Year G-SEC Yield closed at 7.21%. 1-year fwd premia is at 1.80% p.a.

FX reserves stood at USD 590 bn as on Sept 22 nd. In Sep, FPI’S have sold Rs 16026 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 768 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

USDINR volatility compressed further, aided by RBI intervention at higher levels. Despite steep rally in USD Index and Crude prices, Rupee was not allowed to fall beyond 55 ps on intra month high basis. On a month-to-month close basis, Rupee declined 31 ps. Fwd premia stabilised at around 1.8% p.a.

Indian 10 Year bond yields surged to 7.24% and Equity markets declined after 5% intra month rally in Nifty.

Rupee ‘s sentiment stabilised on news that Indian bonds has been included by JP Morgan in its Emerging bond index which is capitalized at USD 236 bn. Indian bond weightage is likely to be 10%. This implies likely inflows of USD 24 bn. Flows may begin from June 2024 and is likely to be staggered over 10 months. Other institutions like FTSE may also include Indian bonds in its index. This is likely to be positive over a longer period of time.

Indian CAD widened to USD 9.2 bn in Q1, 1.1% of GDP. This is against USD 17.9 bn, 2.1% of GDP in Q1 23. However, CAD was only 1.3 bn, 0.2% of GDP in Q4 23. Trade deficit is likely to widen due to climb in Oil prices.

Indian Core sector grew by 12.1% in Aug. This is the highest reading on 14 months. Cement production, which has a weightage of 5.37 per cent, increased by 18.9 per cent in August, and coal having 10.33 per cent, increased by 17.9 per cent in August, according to government data. Crude Oil production (weightage: 8.98 per cent) increased by 2.1 per cent in August 2023 over August 2022. Electricity generation (weightage: 19.85 per cent) increased by 14.9 per cent in August 2023 over August 2022. Fertilizer, natural gas, petroleum refinery products, and steel increased by 1.8 per cent, 10 per cent, 9.5 per cent, and 10.9 per cent, respectively.

GST Collections climbed 10% y/y to Rs 1.62 lac Cr. Gross receipts from GST in the first half of the current fiscal improved 11% from the year-ago period to ₹9.92 trillion. The average monthly gross collection this fiscal is ₹1.65 trillion, which is 11% more than in the year-ago period.

RBI’S meeting is the focus event in first week of Oct. RBI will maintain status quo.

Hedging advise: Imports be hedged on declined to 82.85. Exports be hedged gradually.

Global developments: USD rally intensified in September, as Fed hinted at higher rates for a longer period, while ECB and BOE hinted that rates have hit peak levels. ECB’S opinion was strengthened by a steep decline in both headline and Core inflation. EU CPI slowed from 5.2% yoy to 4.3% yoy in September, below expectation of 4.5% yoy. CPI core (ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) also slowed from 5.3% yoy to 4.5% yoy, below expectation of 4.8% yoy. In US, Core inflation slowed, but headline inflation accelerated due to rally in Crude prices. Core PCE price index slowed from 4.3% yoy to 3.9% yoy, matched expectations.

US Yields rallied to align with Fed’s projections of higher rates for a longer period. 10 Year yield climbed to 4.61%. This triggered decline in Crosses against USD. Euro declined to 1.05, GBP fell to 1.2150 and Yen weakened above 149. US Equity markets declined as higher rates  are likely to dent consumer spending in coming quarters.

US Congress passed a stop gap funding bill, which has avoided a possible shutdown.

US appears much more resilient than any other region. Incoming data releases continue to reaffirm the strength of the US economy, while in contrast, Europe is suffering a sharp slowdown in economic growth and China is still dealing with the implosion of its property sector.

This differential in economic growth is increasingly pushing investors towards USD, and the impressive rally in US yields lately has made the dollar even more attractive from an interest rate perspective.

Gold declined steeply and Crude rallied. Crude rally is aided by tighter supply and shrinking US inventory.

Technically, Euro is likely to decline to 1.0250 and GBP is also set for further decline. US Non farm payrolls, to be released on Friday could trigger the next wave of USD rally, if data is better than expected.

Currency technical levels: USDINR: 82.80/82.65 (Supports), 83.30/83.47 (resistance),

EURINR:88.70(Resistance),86.50(Support),

GBPINR: Supports: 99( supports), Resistance:102.25/103.85(Resistance).

JPYINR: Resistance:57/59.50, Supports: 54.50 (support).

Hedging advise: USDINR imports be hedged at 82.80 on decline. EUR and GBP exports can be covered on rally to 88.70 and 102.25/103.50+ respectively.